Ghosts in the Workforce

My best estimate is about 3.6 million ghosts in the void between Canada’s Labour Force and the Labour Force Participation Rate. They are the not still-in-school, retired, employed and unemployed members of the Labour Force.

If we assume that 50% of them are not working from choice or necessity, for example, parents who are no longer eligible for unemployment insurance and who are home with kids, we are still left with a pretty good-sized number.

GHOSTS – more commonly known as informal workers –are temporary and paid in cash (no EI, CPP, Income Tax or other benefits).  A considerable number of those are poorly paid – minimum wage or less – carrying out a variety of activities: child/ elder care, house cleaning,  ride-share driving, dog walking, freelance work like painting murals, web design work, or buying and reselling goods on websites like eBay or at flea markets. Some informal workers are also making a considerable amount of money because they have highly valued abilities and skills and choose to work outside the formal economy.

Temporary work has come to be known as Gig work.  Gig was a slang term coined by jazz musicians in the 1920s referring to their having obtained an engagement. 

The reasons for doing gig work (side hustles) include: unable to find a job and the bills have to be paid, add layer of income security due to economic uncertainty, supplement income (job doesn’t pay as much as wanted/needed), develop new skills, and to make it possible to manage a life or lifestyle where a regular job doesn’t work.

The Gig economy consists of both formal and informal workers who are:

  • People who have regular full-time jobs
  • People in part-time jobs who want or need more flexibility than is available in full-time jobs, or who can’t find a full-time job do gig work for those same reasons
  • People whose jobs have disappeared and aren’t ever coming back because the industry is declining and/or technology has reduced the need for human workers
  • People who cannot commit to, or don’t want regular employment, or who are outside the frame of being acceptable employees.

Stay tuned for more about Gigs and the future of work.

Questions or comments? Email me at anne@annehoward.com.

Posted in Insight, News

I’m Worth More Than This

That comment has been made so often in my HR career when people are frustrated with the amount of their pay or pay raises.  My response is always “of course YOU are worth more”.  The pay for this job is not only about you and the way you do the job.  It is highly dependent on what the job itself is worth.

Job value is driven by several factors beginning with the knowledge, skills, and abilities required to carry out the tasks involved in that job, followed by the prevalence of that bundle of knowledge, skills, and abilities in the market.  When something is essential and/or highly desirable and is rare it is more valuable than when it is plentiful.

When that bundle of knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs)  is fundamental to an organization’s business success, the job value is higher than when it is a support function, for example, Human Resource KSAs as an internal service in a manufacturing company  are worth less than they are in an H.R. Consulting practice where they are the source of revenue.

In each of the last three industrial eras – mechanization, electrification, computerization -new KSAs were in high demand and many traditionally valuable KSAs became redundant.  We can expect that to continue occurring as we move through the Fourth Industrial Revolution – digitization.  The World Economic Forum’s 2018 “The Future of Jobs Report” included Sports Instructors, Editors, Lifeguards, and Customer Service Reps among the declining jobs in North America. Emerging job roles and therefore valuable roles include the following:

  • Software and Applications Developers and Analysts
  • Data Analysts and Scientists
  • Sales and Marketing Professionals
  • Financial and Investment Advisors
  • General and Operations Managers

Questions or comments?  Please contact me at anne@annehoward.com.

Posted in Comment, Insight, News

Alligators and Alienation

The following visual comparison of average weekly wages and CPI (proxy for cost of living) instantly made me think of “when you are up to your ass in alligators it is hard to remember ….”

The differences in wages as compared to Cost of Living (buying power) situations for Canada as a whole and Alberta are insightful.  The Global recession (2010) hit Canadians’ buying power about twice as hard as it did that of Albertans.  The Energy Industry crash hit Albertans about twice as hard as it did Canadians as a whole.


Statistics Canada.  Table – 18-10-0005-01   Consumer Price Index, annual average, not seasonally adjusted
Data Source: Statistics Canada. Table  14-10-0203-01   Average weekly earnings by industry, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality

Statistics Canada.  Table – 18-10-0005-01   Consumer Price Index, annual average, not seasonally adjusted
Data Source: Statistics Canada. Table  14-10-0203-01   Average weekly earnings by industry, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality

It is easier to understand how simple it is to be insouciant when the alligators are bigger and closer to you than they are to the others.

Questions or comments?  Please contact me at anne@annehoward.com.

Posted in Comment, Insight, News

Which Industries Pay Best? 

Statistics Canada tracks the average weekly wage for Canada, the provinces, and territories.  The data is tracked by Sector (Goods Producing and Services Producing) and by Industry using the North American Industry Classification System.

The average weekly wages for Goods Producing Sector Industries jobs are all higher than the average weekly wage for 71% of Services Sector Industries jobs.

Along with showing the general upward trend for average weekly wages over the long term, the following graph provides a quick understanding of the relationships between Goods and Services Producing Sector wages for Canada and Alberta as well as how Alberta’s wages compare to the Canadian overall average.

Data Source: Statistics Canada. Table – 14-10-0203-01   Average weekly earnings by industry, monthly, unadjusted for seasonality

Over the 16 -year period (01/2004 to 01/2019) Alberta’s average annual weekly wage change was 3.4% for the Goods Producing Sector and 3.87% for the Services Producing Sector, Canada’s annual average wage change was 2.57% (Goods) and 3.14% (Services).  Alberta’s average weekly wages are higher than the Canadian average weekly wage.

The Global Recession (2007 – 2010) impact on Canada as a whole is seen in the average weekly wages for Canada.  The impact of the 2014 oil and gas industry and resulting economic slowdown in Alberta are clearly visible in the drop in average weekly wage in 2016. While the Alberta Services Sector Industries have recovered slightly (+0.05%) as compared to the 2015 average, the Goods Sector average weekly wages remain lower as of January 2019.

Reduced numbers of highly paid senior staff, wage rollbacks, wage freezes and the completion of severance package payouts are among reasons why it took until 2016 for the impact of the recession to show up in the average weekly wage.

Questions or comments?  Please contact me at anne@annehoward.com.

Posted in Insight, News

Canada’s Labour Force Participation

Canada’s labour force includes everyone who is 15 years of age and older.  Labour force participants are individuals who are employed or on EI and are actively seeking employment.  The major factors affecting Labour Force participation are economic conditions, the proportion of the population that is between birth and 15 years of age and older.

Statistics Canada provides low, moderate and high growth estimates for Canada’s future population. In 2030 Canada’s 10.1 million Baby Boomers will be between 65 and 84 years old. Current estimates for Canada’s population in 2030 are a low of 38.6 million, moderate of 41 million and a high of 43.6 million people.  If we go with the moderate population growth number, in 2030 25% of the population will be 65 and older.

In the decade between 2008 and 2018, the proportion of the population between birth and 14 years of age has declined from 16.8% to 16.1% of the population. Over that period the overall population has grown by 11.2%, with the young growing by only 6.3% – less than half the rate of the rest of the population. Canada already has more people over the age of 65 than it does people younger than 15 and has a birth rate that is below replacement levels, which suggests that the Labour Force participation rate will continue to decline for at least the next decade.

There are several other challenges for workers and organizations resulting from the aging of the population. A topic for another blog in the next few weeks.

Questions or comments?  Please contact me at anne@annehoward.com

Posted in Insight, News

Labour Force Information for August 2019

 

The August data was released September 6. Unemployment in Alberta is up 7.2% ( 7.0% July and 6.6% in June) for the third consecutive month and remains higher than it was last year over the summer months (2018 – August  6.7%, July 6.7%,  and June 6.5%).    It remains lower than it was between January 2016 and June 2017 when oil and gas industry downturn effects were greatest (Thankfully!!)

Alberta’s Labour Force has grown this year with 18.7 thousand more participants and 4.1 thousand more people employed.  The number of unemployed (on EI and actively looking for work) has increased by 14.6 thousand since last August.

Industries with the biggest losses of employment this year in August as compared to last year:

  1. Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas:  -11.6%
  2. Business, Building & Other Support Services: -6.5%
  3. Accommodation and Food Services: -4.4%

Industries with the largest employment gains as compared to last August were:

  1. Public Administration: +6.6%
  2. Health Care & Social Assistance: +4.9%
  3. Manufacturing: +4.6%
  4. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing: +3.3%
  5. Professional, Scientific and Technical Services: +3.1%

Canada’s unemployment rate is 5.8%, down from 6.1% in August 2018.  Only New Brunswick and Alberta experienced increased provincial unemployment rates in August 2019.

Since last week when I posted a blog about some of Alberta’s July 2019 Labour Force data, another 5000 Canadian Baby Boomers have retired.  Those retirees do not affect the employment or unemployment rates – they affect the Labour Force Participation rates.  Alberta has the highest provincial participation rate at 71.5%.

Questions or comments?  Please contact me at anne@annehoward.com

Posted in Insight, News

Labour Force Information

Every month the Federal and Provincial Governments provide information about the employment and unemployment statistics, average weekly wage, and job vacancies along with a variety of other economic data.

The monthly Labour Force Statistics provide month over month and year over year information along with a breakdown of employment by industry.

The July 2019 data release in early August tells us:

  • The overall unemployment rate is 7.0% and has increased by 0.3% since last July which is 12,300 more people actively looking for work in July than was the case last July.
  • It also tells us that a total of 177,600 people are actively looking for work which is an increase of 9,700 more people looking for work than there was in July 2018.
  • Calgary’s unemployment has gone down by just under 1%; Edmonton’s has gone up by 1%.

The good news is that employment is up this July over last July by 19,200 people. And the Canadian Federation of Independent Business indicates that Canada’s Job Vacancy Rate while not increasing is holding at 3.2% – roughly 429,000 unfilled jobs through the first half of this year.  It is highest in BC and Quebec and lowest in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Alberta’s unfilled jobs are down, sitting at 1.9% of Labour Demand.

https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/b754ca87-2e9b-4a80-b7b2-2cfef8e53ff4/resource/4f915d16-3092-40ce-9ff4-be525bb2aff5/download/public-package-2019-07.pdf

https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/sites/default/files/2019-08/help-wanted-2019-Q2_1.pdf

 

Posted in Insight, News